Where in Europe to Find Your Store’s Next Market

When a store owner chooses another country to sell in, a table of growth rates looks like a useful starting point. A faster-growing market should offer more opportunities. I would use that table to create an initial shortlist, but I would commit a budget after a different calculation: how much the store can retain from an order fulfilled for a customer in that country.
The distinction matters. Industry growth does not yet tell us whether buyers want our product category, what it costs to acquire a customer or whether we can deliver on our promises. Let us work through the steps from European statistics to a decision an owner can test with the store’s own money and data.

How inflation changes the comparison

The European E-commerce Report 2026, published on 22 September, gives these estimates of B2C e-commerce growth in 2025. The regions follow the report’s classification.

The change in the leading region makes me cautious about the initial interpretation. Looking only at turnover can lead us to treat rising prices as stronger demand. For a merchant, those are different conditions: there may be more customers or purchases, or customers may be paying more for a comparable basket.

Even the adjusted figure does not tell us how many additional units of our product were sold. Countries differ in their coverage of goods and services; the report uses broad IMF inflation indices rather than category-specific prices. [2] I therefore see these figures as a reason to investigate several countries, rather than a sales forecast for an individual store.

The practical implication is to include Southern Europe in demand research where the product range and delivery operation make it feasible. I would not transfer a regional growth rate into the financial plan for a Spanish or Italian storefront. That requires evidence for the country, category and sales channel.

Why a mature market can still be worth entering

The same report attributes 57% of European B2C e-commerce turnover in 2025 to Western Europe. [1]
That large base changes the comparison. A small specialist store needs to find its own group of customers. It does not have to enter the market with the highest growth percentage. If an established market already has identifiable demand for the product, feasible delivery and customers willing to pay for a specific difference, it deserves investigation.

A large market does not make entry easy either. I would first compare the offers a customer would actually consider: the same product purpose, a similar price range and delivery to the same city. Compare the total delivered price, timing, what is included and the return conditions. Product-page prices alone can conceal an advantage or make our offer look more attractive than it is at checkout.

At this point, I would ask why someone would choose our store. For one range, the answer could be a hard-to-find version; for another, a useful bundle, clear advice or confirmed compatibility. If the answer is simply a discount, I would check whether the store can compete with the rival’s ordinary price without continually subsidising the order.

Test how customers actually buy

Poland provides a concrete example. In its publication dated 30 September 2026, Gemius reports that 84% of buyers had used parcel lockers during the year and 67% had used BLIK. These measure usage among buyers in the research, rather than shares of all orders or payments. [3]

Those percentages cannot tell us how many sales an individual store would lose without BLIK or locker delivery. They do justify a practical check: can customers complete a purchase in a familiar way, and does delivery match their expectations? I would establish this before increasing advertising spend.

For a Shopify store, the payment check must cover the actual legal entity and connected provider. A payment method’s presence in a country does not establish that a particular merchant can activate it. Confirm eligibility, fees, settlement currency and the refund workflow. For delivery, test locker selection on a phone, transmission of the chosen location to the carrier and receipt of tracking details.

I would then arrange a test delivery to the country and separately test a return. A successful outbound shipment still leaves unanswered questions about mistakes and customer refusals. Our article on choosing a supplier by fulfillment quality examines this issue in detail. When entering another country, apply those checks to the new destination itself.

A calculation that can change the country decision

Consider two potential markets. This is an illustrative model, not evidence about any particular country. All amounts are euros averaged per original order. Revenue is already net of VAT and expected customer refunds. The returns expense below covers only additional handling and support, so customer refunds are not deducted twice.

Acquisition is cheaper in Market B, yet less remains after fulfillment. This is contribution towards fixed costs and profit, not the business’s net profit. If preparing each launch costs another €2,400, covering those initial costs alone requires 300 orders in Market A and 800 in Market B. The calculation assumes that all averages hold; it excludes other fixed operating expenses.

This explains how attractive advertising numbers can lead to a disappointing expansion. A lower acquisition cost cannot offset any delivery expense. In this model, an additional €4 spent on acquisition or handling would leave Market A with €4 per order, while Market B would lose €1 before fixed costs.

I would test that downside scenario before launch. I would also examine the cash requirement separately: when stock is paid for, when payouts arrive and how long returns take. Positive contribution does not solve a cash shortfall. If the plan relies on repeat purchases to recover acquisition costs, comparable customer behaviour should support that assumption.

Turn market selection into a testable launch

For the first comparison, I would choose several countries the store can serve on acceptable delivery terms. For each, I would collect the same measures: demand in the relevant category, direct competitors’ offers, the full fulfillment cost, available payments and launch costs. Every external figure should retain its publication date, measurement period, geography, unit and method. This prevents an annual market estimate from being casually compared with a store’s monthly sales.

The next step is a limited product range that represents the intended business. If the plan is to sell clothing in multiple sizes, testing accessories alone will reveal little about clothing returns. The selected products need clear local-language descriptions, a final price, credible delivery promises and working support. Check the applicable product requirements and terms of sale for the chosen country before accepting orders.

Shopify Markets supports adapting prices, product availability and the storefront for individual markets. [4] It is a useful tool for putting a decision into practice. I would first describe the required buying journey and establish which features are available to the store. If the existing store already has unresolved problems, a Shopify store diagnostic can help prevent the new launch from reproducing them in another language.

Before advertising begins, record the conditions for continuing the test. In our model, for example, €24 is the maximum acquisition cost in Market A if the owner wants to retain at least €4 after variable costs. This is a threshold derived from this calculation, not a market benchmark. Set additional limits for late deliveries and return expenses based on the store’s promises and acceptable losses.

After launch, I would track paid and fulfilled orders, actual contribution, reasons for abandonment and customer enquiries. Evaluate results after returns have had time to emerge, and show the sample size. A few sales demonstrate that the workflow can function; they do not establish dependable profitability.

If results are weak, locate the point of loss. Are shoppers failing to reach the product, leaving when delivery costs appear or unable to pay? These require different responses. Preserve the history of changes and subsequent results; this approach to assessing decisions is described in the IceStoreLab methodology. It helps distinguish evidence of improvement from a change that merely happened at the same time.

Which market I would choose first

I would use regional statistics to widen the set of possibilities. My final choice would favour a country where the store can offer a clear reason to buy, fulfill the order and retain enough contribution even if conditions become moderately less favourable.

Southern Europe therefore deserves demand research, established western markets deserve a close examination of the niche, and every specific candidate needs payment, delivery and cost checks. These are directions for further work, rather than a universal country ranking.

For the owner, a useful research outcome is a short list of markets and explicit conditions under which each merits another investment. Expansion can then begin with limited exposure, generate the store’s own evidence and receive a larger budget where demand becomes a profitable fulfilled order.